Stanley Cup Finals - bad business this year?

Finally, the final four. Just one step closer to the Stanley Cup Finals. No clue what I'm talking about? NHL hockey, goddamit! Well, I guess only Canadians will appreciate this post.

This year, the later rounds of playoff hockey are a bit more boring than usual. The conspicuous absence of teams like the New Jersey Devils and the Detroit Red Wings and of superstar players like Jaromir Jagr makes this year's playoffs seem rather quiet. I know I'm not going to watch, but that's because games aren't aired in Hong Kong. Not that I EVER watch hockey in Canada, though, heh. Anyway, this year's playoffs will not only prove disappointing to fans, but also the hockey business.

This year, three small-market teams and one team from suburban Los Angeles have made it to the conference finals. The small-market teams have metropolitan populations of approximately 1 million, and the LA team, the Anaheim Mighty Ducks, competes with their more established crosstown rivals, the Los Angeles Kings, for a fan base. Compare these markets with New York City-area teams (metro pop'n: 21 million) and mid-sized market teams like Detroit (metro pop'n: 4.5 million) and Denver (2.8 million). Not only are there more people living in these metropolitan areas, but they also tend to attract larger television audiences. Some teams, especially the ones that have been around for a lot longer (the Montreal Canadiens and Toronto Maple Leafs, for example), or those that have dazzling superstars on their rosters, are nationally popular. On the other hand, newer teams and teams in smaller cities are often only popular in their home markets.

I assume that Canadian small-market teams have larger fan bases than American cities of comparable sizes, though; I could imagine the Calgary Flames selling out (selling all of the tickets, for you non-native speakers) more often than the Carolina Hurricanes can. And perhaps the northeastern part of the US is more interested than people in the south are. I really can't imagine people in Nashville or Phoenix taking to hockey, but perhaps people in Pittsburg and Buffalo feel differently.

As for business, let's think about what I assume are the three main revenue streams in hockey: ticket sales, merchandising, and television rights. Profits from ticket sales largely go to the individual teams (and which, I assume, is also tithed by the league) while revenue from television rights goes to league coffers; I'm not sure about merchandising, though. Let's imagine that Edmonton will win in the Western Conference and Carolina will win in the East. Who will watch the Finals? Fewer people than would watch the Detroit Red Wings vs. the New Jersey Devils, I tell ya. So the beer companies and the crappy North American carmakers that buy advertising time won't be happy. And the more reluctant companies are to advertise for what seems to be a declining market, the weaker the bargaining power the league will have to renegotiate terms with TV networks. Well, at least the small-market teams will probably sell-out during the playoffs, and the unprofitable ones just might break even. And sales of hats, jerseys, and bobbleheads don't hurt either.